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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
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Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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