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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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