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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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