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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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