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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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