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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the conte ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER SUMMONS COAL PRODUCERS; LONG-TERM PRICING MECHANISM IS ADVISED - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that they summoned coal producers for a hea ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER GOVT SIGNALS MORE PRICE REGULATION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signaled further regulations for prices of the dirty pow ...
Friday, 26 November 21
AS COAL MARKET STABILIZES, CHINA STEPS UP NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO MEET WINTER DEMAND - GLOBAL TIMES
The daily supply of natural gas in China has exceeded 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) since November began, up 11 percent year-on-year, data from stat ...
Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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