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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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