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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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