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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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