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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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