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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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