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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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