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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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