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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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