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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 27 September 21
CHINESE COAL FIRMS MEET TO ADDRESS WINTER SUPPLY CHALLENGES - CNBC
Major Chinese coal producers are trying to resolve supply shortages and curb price rises as the country’s winter consumption peak approaches, ...
Saturday, 25 September 21
HIGH STAKES FOR ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK’S AMBITIOUS COAL POWER RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
Implementation challenges could block funding for other equally important high impact clean energy funding strategies
In the lead up ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
LONGER COAL CONTRACTS MAY REIN IN PRICES - ECNS
In China’s coal sector that has been marred recently by price surges, regional authorities and related enterprises should ensure the fuel con ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
BALTIC INDEX HITS 12-YEAR PEAK ON FIRMER VESSELS RATES - REUTERS
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry bulk sea freight index rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to a 12-year high, buoyed by higher rat ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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