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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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