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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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