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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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