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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
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