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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
...
Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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