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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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