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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY INDIA’S SOLAR POWER TARIFFS ARE CLIMBING AFTER HITTING RECORD LOWS LAST YEAR - IEEFA
What’s behind the recent increase?
Solar tariffs are deflationary. Prices have fallen by 75% in seven years in India, and in 2 ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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