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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY INDIA’S SOLAR POWER TARIFFS ARE CLIMBING AFTER HITTING RECORD LOWS LAST YEAR - IEEFA
What’s behind the recent increase?
Solar tariffs are deflationary. Prices have fallen by 75% in seven years in India, and in 2 ...
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- The University of Queensland
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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