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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 01 July 21
END TO COAL POWER BROUGHT FORWARD TO OCTOBER 2024
Press Release: The deadline to phase out coal from Great Britain's energy system has been brought forward by a whole year, highlighting the UK& ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY BUILD 600 NEW UNPROFITABLE COAL PLANTS? - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Governments in Asia are planning 600 new coal plants that could lose investors $150 billion and derail efforts to limit temperature rise in line wi ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
FIVE ASIAN COUNTRIES ACCOUNT FOR 80% OF NEW COAL POWER INVESTMENT - THE GUARDIAN
Five Asian countries are jeopardising global climate ambitions by investing in 80% of the world’s planned new coal plants, according to a rep ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR RECORDED AN IMPROVED REVENUE IN Q1 2021; REVENUE INCREASED BY 49% QOQ TO US$160 MILLION ON THE BACK OF COAL PRICE RECOVERY
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (“DOID”) released its consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owned ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
BUMA SIGNED MINING AGREEMENT WITH ADARO
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into an agreement for the p ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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