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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
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