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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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