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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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