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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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