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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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