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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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