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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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