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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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