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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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