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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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