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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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