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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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