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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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