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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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