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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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