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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
Friday, 29 July 22
GLENCORE TO SUPPLY COAL TO NIPPON STEEL AT $375 PER TON - BLOOMBERG
Glencore Plc, agreed to supply coal to Nippon Steel at one of the highest prices ever paid by the Japan Bloomberg reported on July 27.
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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