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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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