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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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