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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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