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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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