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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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