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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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