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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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