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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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