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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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