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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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