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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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