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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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