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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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